Model Portfolio Enhancements Update

I created the Model Portfolio to turn the complex theories on this blog into a tangible, easy-to-follow roadmap. It’s the definitive answer to the “So, what do I do now?” dilemma.

But I don’t just talk the talk, I walk the walk. My private portfolio follows the exact same DNA as the Model, just with a few “real-world” upgrades. I add layers of redundancy to protect against model risk and keep an eye on cutting-edge strategies, the kind of sophisticated tools that are just now trickling down to retail investors, to give my personal capital an extra edge.

Here and here you can find the previous posts on this topic.

Stocks

Managing equity exposure through bond-linked instruments like the NTS* family or RSSB proved to be more rigid than I’d like. I considered Amundi’s 2x MSCI World ETF, but until the all-in costs are transparent, it’s a pass. Instead, I’ve pivoted to SPUU (a 2x S&P 500 ETF), effectively winding down my NTSX stake to zero.

EDIT: Since they flagged it to me, my exposure to NTSX was already pretty small because RSST and GDE are staking US stocks as well. I have less than 3% allocated to SPUU 😉

Then there’s an administrative friction news: IBKR flagged NTSE for exposure to “black-listed” countries, putting me in a sell-only holding pattern. Still waiting for a fix, but for now, the door is closed.

The biggest shift, however, is ORR. After a year of hearing David Orr’s story on the podcast circuit, I was sold. At the time I didn’t know he had an ETF, to me he was simply another uninvestable hedge fund manager. Later in the year, I discovered the ETF…but as it skyrocketed, I felt that familiar behavioral itch, the fear of buying the top and looking like a sucker. I’m currently sitting at half my target allocation.

Orr’s strategy is elegantly contrarian (in the retail investor-mania POV), an unconventional long/short manager: he shorts the yield-trap complex (YieldMax, covered calls, etc.). He’s essentially harvesting the upside that yield-starved retail investors, bless their hearts, are willing to leave on the table in exchange for a “stable” check. Something that I would do myself if I were able to borrow those ETFs on the cheap.

Commodities

In 2025, WisdomTree launched WTIP, a multi-asset ETF designed to act as a comprehensive hedge against both expected and unexpected inflation.

Instead of picking just one asset class, WTIP “stacks” several different inflation-sensitive exposures on top of each other. For every $100 invested, the fund aims to provide approximately $195 of total market exposure.

Here is how the portfolio is structured:

• Fixed Income: Roughly 85% of the fund is invested in TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). These provide a baseline of protection against “expected” inflation because their principal and interest payments adjust based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
• Commodities: The fund overlays an exposure (roughly 95%) to a diversified basket of commodity futures.
  • Trend-Following: About 80% of this sleeve is managed using a long/short momentum signal, meaning the fund can profit from both rising and falling commodity trends.
  • Precious Metals: A fixed 15% of this sleeve is dedicated to long-only positions in gold and silver (7.5% each).
• Digital Assets: The fund can allocate up to 10% of its assets to Bitcoin (via ETPs or futures).

What convinced me is the stacking component. I am not a fan of TIPS as a long-term allocation, but I wanted to diversify COM’s strategy since…I started to build my portfolio. HARD could have been an option, but being “made by Simplify” and “unlevered” held me back.

The capital efficiency of WTIP is hard to beat:

Carry

I wrote about RSSY here: on paper, the strategy looked like pure magic. It promised that rare combination of returns and diversification that every investor craves. But the lived experience has been the polar opposite. In the first nine months, the carry component cratered 17%. The Return Stacking team held a webinar to explain that while the loss was exceptional, it was still statistically “possible.” I usually wait a year before buying new products, but the opportunity felt too good to pass up. Since I bought in, it’s lost another 10% (again, just the carry component).

What’s puzzling is the performance gap. The team runs a similar strategy in a mutual fund wrapper (twice the target volatility and emplying a wider universe of illiquid instruments) that has behaved… differently. Differently and better! That’s my only real benchmark, and the divergence is frustrating.

Meanwhile, UEQC is only down slightly, though its strategy is a different beast entirely. We are now hitting the max drawdowns suggested in the original white papers, even if those papers didn’t account for the friction of commissions and slippage. Launching a strategy that thrives on stable markets right before the “Trump 2.0” era was a masterclass in bad timing…I guess?? Ah no, the mutual fund…

I’m watching to see how 2026 unfolds for this carry strategy. It comes in such an efficient and unique package that would be hard to sell it. As they say, there is a profound difference between seeing a 30% drawdown in a backtest and seeing it in your brokerage account. But honestly? It doesn’t hurt that much. That’s the beauty of a diversified portfolio; when each strategy is right-sized, no single line item can ruin your day. But at some point, the math has to work, or I’ll have to pull the plug.

Alternative Risk Premia

I finally managed to switch from FLSP into a AQR mutual fund, which should be the UCITS version of QMNIX. The idea and rationale behind the investment are the same, the big difference is that now the strategy is managed by experts and it is run at a higher target vol.

I also ‘carved out’ SVIX from the portfolio because I run a specific strategy around it.

The Portfolio

The gross allocations moved from:

• equities: 53% (5% is SVOL, the rest is split 60% US, 30% DMs, 10% EM)
• FLSP: 5%
• bonds: 36% (only Intermediate Treasuries)
• Trend: 26% (equal split of DBMF, KMLM and RSST)
• Commodities: 10% (a 60/40 split of gold via GDE and COM)
• Tail risk: 10% (2.5% TAIL, 2.5% CAOS, 5% BTAL)
• KRBN: 2% (the fun money part)

to:

• equities: 53% (5% is ORR, the rest is split 60% US, 30% DMs, 10% EM)
• QMNIX: 5%
• bonds: 32% (Intermediate Treasuries and IL bonds from WTIP)
• Trend: 26% (equal split of DBMF, KMLM and RSST)
• Commodities: 17% (COM, GDE, WTIP)
• Tail risk: 10% (2.5% TAIL, 2.5% CAOS, 5% BTAL)
• Carry: 5%
• KRBN: 2%

I managed to increase the leverage by using more efficient instruments and reduce the bond allocation (which I hope to bring further down).

I have many new ETFs on the radar; the most relevant ones are MATE, ILS/CATB, HFMF, FOXY, and ASGM.

What I am reading now:

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