I came across an interview with Jordan Brooks, who runs macro strategies at AQR Capital Management, in the Journal of Portfolio Management. AQR manages somewhere around $100 billion. Brooks has a PhD, teaches at Yale and NYU, and spends his days thinking about global macroeconomics in ways that would make Read more
Thomas Peterffy has a problem with prediction markets. Not with the concept, he loves the concept. His problem is with what they’ve become. And I agree with him. Peterffy, the founder of Interactive Brokers, recently joined the Odd Lots podcast to talk about his new venture, Forecast Trader, IBKR’s dedicated Read more
I listened to a podcast where a financial advisor walked through his Goal Based Investing philosophy with a real case. The details were refreshingly specific: a couple, 300k saved, one kid headed to university in 15 years, and a retirement target of 5,500/month at age 60. His recommendation? A 90/10 Read more
In the world of finance, we are largely taught to worship at the altar of the Law of Large Numbers. The theory is simple: over a long enough time horizon, your investment outcomes will eventually converge toward the historical average. But there’s a problem. You aren’t an “average.” You aren’t Read more
Someone recently wrote the following on my podcast SubReddit (I will just report an extract of the relevant part): I set myself a clear goal: to reach around €1 million in assets within 12–13 years. The million is not a random number, but a threshold that would allow me—if I Read more
The above tweet popped up on my feed by chance and…once you go down the Ole Peters rabbit hole, there’s no coming back. You start realising once again the power of ergodicity in explaining things around us. The reason this paper has been sitting there for nine years without becoming Read more
So, Big ERN drops this post the other day and my phone immediately lights up. Three different guys send it to me within minutes of each other. And honestly? This is exactly why I write this blog. This is the mechanism working as intended. Agustin Lebron has this great line: Read more
Matt Sperling used to run a monthly blog called like this and I loved it. It sounds harsher than it is, probably I should have called this post things that popped onto my radar, as Niels from TopTradersUnplugged would put it, but well…this is what you get. Who Are You Read more
I read a lot of financial Twitter (lately even football Twitter. The real one. The one played with…you guess…feet, not hands). Most of it is noise. Some of it is signal. And occasionally, you see a debate that makes you want to throw your phone out the window. One of Read more
When I started my career, my company sent a PDF to a bank. That PDF essentially said, “This person is trustworthy.” The next day, I picked up the phone and called someone I’d never met in another country. I told him I’d wire $200 million, and he’d wire me €195 Read more