A few days ago I read a post from a fellow Swiss about financial independence, and I recognized myself in a lot of it. More importantly, it made me realise the FIRE movement has a branding problem. FIRE — Financial Independence, Retire Early — is one of the more successful Read more
Everything below started with one image: Portfolio Charts posted this global allocation and it stopped me in my tracks. The allocation is just a thing of beauty. That one graphic is the reason this post exists, but it’s really an excuse to talk about something bigger: Portfolio Charts just launched Read more
Most people who reach out to me have read my stuff. In our calls, we usually end up clarifying a concept, or talking about how some idea applies to their specific situation. Normal, healthy conversations. Then there’s the other, smaller group. They found me maybe through the podcast, skipped the Read more
A lot of you probably know Benn Eifert. I’ve linked his stuff here before, I’ve referenced his work, some of you have been following him for years. And for those who haven’t…no worries, I’ll catch you up. Benn was running a relatively small, volatility-focused, hedge fund. And recently the firm Read more
I came across an interview with Jordan Brooks, who runs macro strategies at AQR Capital Management, in the Journal of Portfolio Management. AQR manages somewhere around $100 billion. Brooks has a PhD, teaches at Yale and NYU, and spends his days thinking about global macroeconomics in ways that would make Read more
Thomas Peterffy has a problem with prediction markets. Not with the concept, he loves the concept. His problem is with what they’ve become. And I agree with him. Peterffy, the founder of Interactive Brokers, recently joined the Odd Lots podcast to talk about his new venture, Forecast Trader, IBKR’s dedicated Read more
I listened to a podcast where a financial advisor walked through his Goal Based Investing philosophy with a real case. The details were refreshingly specific: a couple, 300k saved, one kid headed to university in 15 years, and a retirement target of 5,500/month at age 60. His recommendation? A 90/10 Read more
In the world of finance, we are largely taught to worship at the altar of the Law of Large Numbers. The theory is simple: over a long enough time horizon, your investment outcomes will eventually converge toward the historical average. But there’s a problem. You aren’t an “average.” You aren’t Read more
Someone recently wrote the following on my podcast SubReddit (I will just report an extract of the relevant part): I set myself a clear goal: to reach around €1 million in assets within 12–13 years. The million is not a random number, but a threshold that would allow me—if I Read more
The above tweet popped up on my feed by chance and…once you go down the Ole Peters rabbit hole, there’s no coming back. You start realising once again the power of ergodicity in explaining things around us. The reason this paper has been sitting there for nine years without becoming Read more