I listened to a podcast where a financial advisor walked through his Goal Based Investing philosophy with a real case. The details were refreshingly specific: a couple, 300k saved, one kid headed to university in 15 years, and a retirement target of 5,500/month at age 60. His recommendation? A 90/10 Read more
In the world of finance, we are largely taught to worship at the altar of the Law of Large Numbers. The theory is simple: over a long enough time horizon, your investment outcomes will eventually converge toward the historical average. But there’s a problem. You aren’t an “average.” You aren’t Read more
Someone recently wrote the following on my podcast SubReddit (I will just report an extract of the relevant part): I set myself a clear goal: to reach around €1 million in assets within 12–13 years. The million is not a random number, but a threshold that would allow me—if I Read more
The above tweet popped up on my feed by chance and…once you go down the Ole Peters rabbit hole, there’s no coming back. You start realising once again the power of ergodicity in explaining things around us. The reason this paper has been sitting there for nine years without becoming Read more
So, Big ERN drops this post the other day and my phone immediately lights up. Three different guys send it to me within minutes of each other. And honestly? This is exactly why I write this blog. This is the mechanism working as intended. Agustin Lebron has this great line: Read more
Matt Sperling used to run a monthly blog called like this and I loved it. It sounds harsher than it is, probably I should have called this post things that popped onto my radar, as Niels from TopTradersUnplugged would put it, but well…this is what you get. Who Are You Read more
I read a lot of financial Twitter (lately even football Twitter. The real one. The one played with…you guess…feet, not hands). Most of it is noise. Some of it is signal. And occasionally, you see a debate that makes you want to throw your phone out the window. One of Read more
When I started my career, my company sent a PDF to a bank. That PDF essentially said, “This person is trustworthy.” The next day, I picked up the phone and called someone I’d never met in another country. I told him I’d wire $200 million, and he’d wire me €195 Read more
“How much income can I count on from my retirement savings?” With traditional pensions, defined benefit plans, becoming as rare as a good plumber, most of us are stuck figuring this out on our own. The math here is brutal. You don’t know how long you’ll live. You don’t know Read more
On social media, I read many critiques of managed futures strategies…also from people I consider intelligent. These posts got me thinking about a fundamental tension in investing: some of the strategies that work best mathematically are often the hardest to stick with emotionally. The Torture of Positive Skew Managed futures Read more