In the world of finance, we are largely taught to worship at the altar of the Law of Large Numbers. The theory is simple: over a long enough time horizon, your investment outcomes will eventually converge toward the historical average. Read more
I created the Model Portfolio to turn the complex theories on this blog into a tangible, easy-to-follow roadmap. It’s the definitive answer to the “So, what do I do now?” dilemma. But I don’t just talk the talk, I walk Read more
Roger Nusbaum recently published an excellent piece. And, in the spirit of efficient markets, I’ve decided to steal his title as well. While Roger focused on how to size alternative assets, I believe that’s a secondary concern. The data suggests Read more
Someone recently wrote the following on my podcast SubReddit (I will just report an extract of the relevant part): I set myself a clear goal: to reach around €1 million in assets within 12–13 years. The million is not a Read more
n April 2022, I introduced on this blog The Italian Leather Sofa Model Portfolio. As a reminder, here is the portfolio composition: The idea behind the portfolio is stolen from here. The link offers the best explanation of what I think Read more
The above tweet popped up on my feed by chance and…once you go down the Ole Peters rabbit hole, there’s no coming back. You start realising once again the power of ergodicity in explaining things around us. The reason this Read more
So, Big ERN drops this post the other day and my phone immediately lights up. Three different guys send it to me within minutes of each other. And honestly? This is exactly why I write this blog. This is the Read more
Matt Sperling used to run a monthly blog called like this and I loved it. It sounds harsher than it is, probably I should have called this post things that popped onto my radar, as Niels from TopTradersUnplugged would put Read more
I read a lot of financial Twitter (lately even football Twitter. The real one. The one played with…you guess…feet, not hands). Most of it is noise. Some of it is signal. And occasionally, you see a debate that makes you Read more
A reader hit me up last week about something that triggered my BS detector: MSCI built a “Private Equity replicator” index, and Goldman Sachs wrapped it in an ETF, ticker GTPE. Here we go again, I thought. Another product to Read more