In the world of finance, we are largely taught to worship at the altar of the Law of Large Numbers. The theory is simple: over a long enough time horizon, your investment outcomes will eventually converge toward the historical average. But there’s a problem. You aren’t an “average.” You aren’t Read more
I created the Model Portfolio to turn the complex theories on this blog into a tangible, easy-to-follow roadmap. It’s the definitive answer to the “So, what do I do now?” dilemma. But I don’t just talk the talk, I walk the walk. My private portfolio follows the exact same DNA Read more
Roger Nusbaum recently published an excellent piece. And, in the spirit of efficient markets, I’ve decided to steal his title as well. While Roger focused on how to size alternative assets, I believe that’s a secondary concern. The data suggests that the most critical decision isn’t the weight: it’s the Read more
n April 2022, I introduced on this blog The Italian Leather Sofa Model Portfolio. As a reminder, here is the portfolio composition: The idea behind the portfolio is stolen from here. The link offers the best explanation of what I think is the most common question related to it, i.e. why Read more
A very kind reader sent me the link to a paper aimed to show the wonders this portfolio: The portfolio for the apocalypse 😉 Simple and systematic. While there isn’t much to say about the portfolio first two component, I will summary here the tail hedging strategy: systematically purchase 10-delta Read more
“How much income can I count on from my retirement savings?” With traditional pensions, defined benefit plans, becoming as rare as a good plumber, most of us are stuck figuring this out on our own. The math here is brutal. You don’t know how long you’ll live. You don’t know Read more
In April 2022, I introduced on this blog The Italian Leather Sofa Model Portfolio. As a reminder, here is the portfolio composition: The idea behind the portfolio is stolen from here. The link offers the best explanation of what I think is the most common question related to it, i.e. why Read more
On social media, I read many critiques of managed futures strategies…also from people I consider intelligent. These posts got me thinking about a fundamental tension in investing: some of the strategies that work best mathematically are often the hardest to stick with emotionally. The Torture of Positive Skew Managed futures Read more
I found this ETF reading Roger Nusbaum blog. When I first saw the name and website, I instantly dismissed it as a marketing stunt. But Roger continued to mention it, so one day I bit the bullet and dug more. INVESTMENT APPROACHThe Adviser allocates the Fund’s portfolio equally among four Read more
In April 2022, I introduced on this blog The Italian Leather Sofa Model Portfolio. As a reminder, here is the portfolio composition: The idea behind the portfolio is stolen from here. The link offers the best explanation of what I think is the most common question related to it, i.e. why Read more