Since Central Banks announced last year that they were going to increase interest rates, I (for once) acted responsibly and asked myself this question: should I reduce the leverage in my portfolio? The cost to borrow money represents a hurdle rate: the return I get from investing has to be Read more
In April this year, I introduced The Italian Leather Sofa model portfolio. As a reminder, here is the portfolio composition: 60% stocks (via NTSX) 40% bonds (via NTSX) 20% trend (via DBMF) 10% commodities trend (via COM) 4% Tail risk (via TAIL) -34% cash The idea behind the portfolio is Read more
The importance of establishing your investing decisions on Excel models instead of ‘feelings’ or opinions, reminder #452. It took me more than a week while working on a post titled “one year of leverage” to realize that, actually, I opened the Interactive Broker account in 2020 and not 2021. I Read more
In April this year, I introduced The Italian Leather Sofa model portfolio. As a reminder, here is the portfolio composition: 60% stocks (via NTSX) 40% bonds (via NTSX) 20% trend (via DBMF) 10% commodities trend (via COM) 4% Tail risk (via TAIL) -34% cash The idea behind the portfolio is Read more
It has been a month or two since I got back the “build and test trading strategies” bug. A bug that my very first, real gig gave me. Thinking about that job now, it was pretty absurd. It was a six months internship for what at the time was a Read more
The typical dose of daily financial news is something like “Stock XYZ did this today”; if we are lucky, is something more general like “Stocks went up/down” or, more likely these days, “Bonds did this and that”. For the average investor, there is little value in that information. Their holdings Read more
Religions are a bubble that will prove to be “worthless” John Paulson Religions are a fraud Paul Singer Would you believe the above quotes were real if the person said his judgement is based only on intrinsic value? What about this: As I dug into the actual underpinnings, it just Read more
This is my third post about leverage, you can find the first introduction here and a second, practical implementation, here. In particular, I want to comment this recent paper from JPMorgan that I found really interesting (spoiler alert: I agree with them). I will try to ‘translate’ the paper for Read more
I first wrote about leverage more than one year ago, time flies! It was a good introduction at the concept and what were my initial thoughts. I am not sure how I will ‘develop’ this series of post, maybe one day there will be an entire section of the blog, Read more