If you spend enough time watching the way people interact with their brokerage accounts, you eventually realize that they aren’t actually looking for “total return.” That’s a lie they tell themselves to feel smart at dinner parties. What the average person is actually hunting for is a feeling. Specifically, the Read more
Three years ago, I moved into this incredibly well-placed and reasonably priced apartment in Zurich. Then I started this podcast nonsense, which brought a problem along: it made me crave a home office…while I also need a bed. In the physical world, we’re constrained by the floor space. If I Read more
In the world of finance, we are largely taught to worship at the altar of the Law of Large Numbers. The theory is simple: over a long enough time horizon, your investment outcomes will eventually converge toward the historical average. But there’s a problem. You aren’t an “average.” You aren’t Read more
I created the Model Portfolio to turn the complex theories on this blog into a tangible, easy-to-follow roadmap. It’s the definitive answer to the “So, what do I do now?” dilemma. But I don’t just talk the talk, I walk the walk. My private portfolio follows the exact same DNA Read more
Roger Nusbaum recently published an excellent piece. And, in the spirit of efficient markets, I’ve decided to steal his title as well. While Roger focused on how to size alternative assets, I believe that’s a secondary concern. The data suggests that the most critical decision isn’t the weight: it’s the Read more
Someone recently wrote the following on my podcast SubReddit (I will just report an extract of the relevant part): I set myself a clear goal: to reach around €1 million in assets within 12–13 years. The million is not a random number, but a threshold that would allow me—if I Read more
n April 2022, I introduced on this blog The Italian Leather Sofa Model Portfolio. As a reminder, here is the portfolio composition: The idea behind the portfolio is stolen from here. The link offers the best explanation of what I think is the most common question related to it, i.e. why Read more
The above tweet popped up on my feed by chance and…once you go down the Ole Peters rabbit hole, there’s no coming back. You start realising once again the power of ergodicity in explaining things around us. The reason this paper has been sitting there for nine years without becoming Read more
So, Big ERN drops this post the other day and my phone immediately lights up. Three different guys send it to me within minutes of each other. And honestly? This is exactly why I write this blog. This is the mechanism working as intended. Agustin Lebron has this great line: Read more
Matt Sperling used to run a monthly blog called like this and I loved it. It sounds harsher than it is, probably I should have called this post things that popped onto my radar, as Niels from TopTradersUnplugged would put it, but well…this is what you get. Who Are You Read more